Shift happens! Geopolitical jitters, institutional capital and changing lifestyles are rewriting the rules of SA residential property

South Africa’s residential property market is navigating a paradox. After posting the first real-term house price growth since 2021, the sector now faces fresh headwinds: geopolitical conflict, rising energy costs and increasingly selective buyers. Within this cautious environment, new asset classes are emerging as clear growth stories, from multifamily rentals to purpose-built student housing.

The 4^th Annual Reside Summit, taking place 20-21 May 2026 at the Sandton Convention Centre, is a comprehensive, high-level gathering for residential property expertise featuring the Reside Conference, Expo, Visitor Open Day and Awards Gala, as well as the Absa Investor Breakfast.

Insights from key confirmed summit participants highlight that uncertainty is forcing SA’s residential property market to grow up, shifting from fragmented, speculative momentum to professional, institutionalised and purpose-driven investment.  

Mike Eilertsen, CEO of Meta-dology.com, says the most significant change in South African residential property is a decisive shift away from momentum-driven buying toward value-led decision-making. Buyers, investors and developers are becoming far more selective  — a response not only to local affordability pressures but also to global instability. He points to the current Middle East conflict and oil price volatility, with Brent crude trading above $100 per barrel in March 2026, as a stark reminder that “geopolitical shocks can feed into the real economy” quickly. This environment, he notes, delays interest-rate relief and keeps borrowing costs elevated.

The impact, Eilertsen explains, is increased caution across the board. Developers face higher input costs, investors are taking longer to commit, and buyers are asking more questions about property purchase opportunities. In this climate, he argues, “clarity becomes a commercial advantage” —  with virtual tools helping buyers emotionally connect to off-plan developments. “The future of residential property will not only be shaped by what is built, but by how effectively it is communicated,” he says.

Jess Moyer, Chief Operating Officer of Rode Publications and Media, describes the South African residential market as a “critical turning point”. The nascent recovery in nominal house prices, which achieved real-term growth in late 2025, is now being tested by heightened global instability. She identifies the conflict in Iran as a “black swan” risk, warning that fuel price spikes could reignite inflation and force the South African Reserve Bank to reverse its supportive stance on interest rate decisions. Most economists now warn that interest rate relief may be delayed well into 2027.

Despite this, mortgage grants have increased and first-time buyers now represent roughly one-third of the market. However, developers face persistent hurdles: building costs remain high relative to market rentals, and new construction stays below long-term averages. At the same time, Moyer highlights the professionalisation of the rental sector, meaning a shift from informal, private landlords to professionally managed, institutionally owned multifamily housing.

According to the 2025:Q4 Rode Report, portfolios managed under the South African Multifamily Residential Rental Association (SAMRRA) achieve significantly lower vacancy rates (4.9%) than traditional private rentals (6.5%). In other words, professionally run rental properties are not only attracting more lifestyle-focused tenants but are also proving more resilient in holding occupancy during uncertain market conditions.

Palesa Mkhize, CEO of SAMRRA, puts it simply: demand for institutionalised rental is growing because it services “more than just the affordable housing need, but the lifestyle needs too.”

She notes that rental housing is becoming a priority for both government and the private sector as they seek to deliver affordable options to South Africans, particularly in the country’s metros. In these areas, residential accommodation tends to offer either quality or affordability, but rarely both. Against this backdrop, demand for rental is rising, not just for any rental, but for well-managed homes with amenities that reflect all key elements of tenants’ lifestyles. Tenants, especially young professionals, are coming to expect well-located decent rental accommodation as standard.

Kagisho Mamabolo, CEO of the Private Student Housing Association (PSHA), sees the most significant shift as the rapid institutionalisation of residential property into specialised living sectors, particularly student accommodation. What was once fragmented is now evolving into a recognised asset class, driven by sustained urban housing demand, institutional investors seeking stable yields, and government’s growing embrace of public-private partnerships.

The impact, he says, is a transition toward professionally managed, purpose-built accommodation with a stronger focus on quality and safety – though rising input costs and constrained NSFAS funding rates continue to pressure margins.

Looking ahead, Mamabolo predicts residential property will increasingly segment into niche asset classes: student housing, co-living and affordable rental, each with distinct funding models. “The future will be defined by integrated developments that combine living, learning and community,” he says, pointing to collaborations that convert underused hotels and commercial buildings into student accommodation. His bottom line: “If South Africa is to fully unlock the potential of residential property as a driver of economic growth, there must be deliberate coordination between policy, funding and private sector capacity.”

Debbie Tagg, Chair of the Reside Summit, comments, “The Reside Summit brings together these voices and many more, shaping the residential future. It connects the entire residential value chain to share knowledge, collaborate and do business.”

The event is sponsored by leading names including International Finance Corporation – a Member of the World Bank Group (IFC), Absa, Meta-dology.com, Builders, Searchworks, South African Multifamily Residential Rental Association (SAMRRA), Private Student Housing Association and the Community Schemes Ombud Services (CSOS), among others.

As SA’s only multisector residential property event, the Reside Summit highlights all aspects of residential property, including ownership to invest-to-rent, sectional title and both single and multifamily rentals. It spans a wide range of themes and trends ranging from social impact to signature living, design to development, construction to compliance and finance to technology.

For more information and to register, visit: https://residesummit.co.za

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ABOUT RESIDE SUMMIT

Launched in 2023, the Residential Investment & Development (Reside) Summit aims to bridge the gap between stakeholders in the public and private sector, construction firms, property developers, investors, financial institutions, and industry bodies.